Friday, July 5, 2013

SIU Picks July 6

  • Yes Both Score
  • Sabine Lisicki
  • Sogndal Leading or Tied
  • Mjallby Win
  • Yes Both Score
  • Any Other Number
  • No Run
  • Yankees
  • 6 or More
  • Spain Win (Streak Pick)- Spain has been dominant so far this tournament. In the group stage, they went 3-0, with wins over France, Ghana and the USA while maintaining a +5 goal differential over those matches. However, when they reached the second stage of the tournament,  it appeared as though Spain was going to fall at the hands of Mexico, as they were down 1-0 heading into the 70th minute. However, they quickly netted two goals in the 74th and 90th minutes to grab the match and head to the quarterfinals. Uruguay, Spain's opponent, lost their first match of group play but went on to score 6 unanswered goals in their next two matches, obviously winning them both. They were then matched up against Nigeria in the first match of the second stage, and the score was tied up 1-1 heading into the 80th minute. However, in the 84th minute, a penalty was called on Nigeria in the box, and Uruguay didn't miss, and went on to win the match. I think Spain got very unlucky having to face Mexico, as Mexico actually won gold at the 2012 London Olympics. Nigeria was a pretty easy opponent for Uruguay, however. Nigeria also only had 10 men from the 41st minute on, so the fact that Uruguay actually let Nigeria score is kind of worrying. Spain is obviously the much better team here, and should easily win in 90 minutes. They won't want to repeat their performance against Mexico, and I am sure have figured out what needed to be worked on and worked on it. They are -154 to win in regulation time, while Uruguay is just +130 to win or draw.
  • 5+ Runs
  • Cardinals Leading
  • 3+ Hits+BBs
  • Nationals Win by 2+
  • Pirates
  • Any Other Number
  • 9 or Fewer Strikeouts
  • AOR- Dodgers (Streak Pick)- In this matchup, the 41-44 Dodgers will face the 39-46 Giants in San Francisco. On the mound for the Dodgers will be Stephen Fife, who has been dominant so far this year, going 3-2 with only a 2.83 ERA. In his last 6 starts, he has not allowed more than 3 runs, and has allowed less than 3 runs in 5 of those 6. In his last start he went 7 innings and didn't allow a run. He actually faced San Francisco at home on June 25th, and his team got the win as Fife allowed only 3 runs over 6.2 innings. The Giants will counter with lefty Madison Bumgarner, who has also been dominant recently. He has gone 8-5 with a 3.08 ERA so far this season, and has not allowed more than 3 earned runs in a start since June 8th. He pitched against the Dodgers on June 24th, and took the loss, allowing 3 runs (2 earned) over 7 innings. As you can see, there is really no edge in the pitching matchup, and this should be a tight, low-scoring ball game. However, San Francisco is on a 1-9 skid in their past 10 games. Their offense hasn't scored more than 2 runs in 4 games, and have scored more than 2 runs only twice in the 10 game stretch. They were also swept by the Dodgers in a series a week ago. The Dodgers, however, are red hot, winning 8 of their last 10. This includes a 10-2 win against the Giants last night. In their past 10 games, they have only scored less than 4 runs once, which is quite an achievement. The Giants have to win by two here, and with their struggling offense, I would be surprised if they were able to score more than 2 or 3 runs, especially since Fife has been red hot lately. That means the Dodgers really only need a run or two to win this prop, which with their surging offense, should be a piece of cake. Currently, the Giants are actually favorites to win the game (at -180), but the Dodgers are favorites to win or keep it a run one ball game, as that line is at -140, while the Giants to win by 2+ is at +120.
  • Rays Leading
  • 5+ Runs
  • Braves
  • New England Win
  • Even Number
  • Red Sox
  • Diamondbacks (Streak Pick)- So far this season, the DBacks have gone 45-41, with a lot of their newfound success coming at home, where they are 22-16. Today, they will send Wade Miley to the mound, who hasn't exactly had a great season, but has been very good lately. On the year, he is 4-7 with a 4.29 ERA, but as I said, has performed recently. In his last 4 starts, he has given up only 6 earned runs, but has not gotten any offensive support, as he has lost two of those starts. The Rockies will throw Drew Pomeranz, who made his first start of the year on June 30th. Pomeranz only went 4.1 innings and gave up 4 earned runs, including 2 long balls. And that was at home. I wonder if he will be worse on the road. The answer is probably yes. So I give the DBacks a huge pitching advantage in this matchup. Both teams have been fairly bad recently, the DBacks winning 4 of their last 10 and the Rockies going 3-7 over the same stretch of games. The DBacks were able to pick up the win against the Rockies last night, as they jumped all over Jorge De La Rosa, whose ERA is very low at 3.19, and scored 5 runs in the game (3 off La Rosa.) Tonight's Rockies starter is worse, so I think the DBacks offense will capitilize with 5 or 6 runs while Miley allows only 2 or 3 to continue his recent success.
  • 3+ Goals

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