Thursday, July 4, 2013

SIU Picks July 5th

Only going to post the games until 12 PM EST now, because I will have access to a computer quite early in the morning.
  • Djokovic Wins by 5+ Games- As you notice, I don't believe this is a Streak Pick. In fact, I think this will be a VERY close match. Del Potro played outstanding against Ferrer and the knee injury didn't seem to bother him at all. With some pills, the knee should be fine again. Djokovic has problems returning serves at times, and Del Potro has one of the best serves in the game. I expect this match to go to three tiebreakers, as I think Del Potro will grab a set, and Djokovic winning a set outright, although the question of how much he wins by is why I don't think this is a Streak Pick.
  • Murray Wins by 6+ Games
  • 21 or Fewer Games
  • Russia W Leading or Tied
  • Any Other Number of Goals
  • Basel Win
  • No Either Team Has The Lead
  • Derry City Win
  • Jack Sock
  • 2+ Goals
  • AOR- Pirates (Streak Pick)- In this matchup, the 36-47 Cubs will play the 52-32 Pirates. The Cubs will send Jeff Samardzija to the mound, who so far this year has gone 5-7 with a 3.34 ERA. He has been rock solid in his last 3 outings, allowing only 7 earned runs in about 22 innings, or about 3 runs per game. At home, he hasn't been too great this year. going 2-2 with a 4.11 ERA, which is quite surprising, as pitchers are typically better in front of their home fans than on the road. The Pirates will send lefty Francisco Liriano to the mound. Liriano has been dominant so far this year, going 7-3 with a 2.23 ERA. In his last 3 starts, he has gone basically 19 innings while only allowing 4 runs. He has also been quite good on the road, going 3-2 with a 2.40 ERA. Now, to the offenses. The Cubs offense looked like it had been coming around, until they were shut out yesterday by Oakland, 1-0. They had scored at least 3 runs in their last 11 games, but obviously that streak was ended. And the steak was ended against a pitcher with a high ERA at 4.52. Now, they will have to face a pitcher with an ERA near 2, and have to score runs. The Pirates lost their most recent series to the Phillies, dropping 2 out of 3 games. They scored only 11 runs in that series, which is pretty good, as that is about 4 runs per game. Now, keep in mind to win this prop the Cubs have to win by 2 or more runs. Therefore, they are going to have to score. I think the Pirates will easily be able to score 2 or 3 runs, so the question is will the Cubs be able to put up 4 or 5. In my opinion, that answer is a no with very high confidence. In fact, the Pirates are favored to win this game at -137, so I highly doubt the Cubs will win by 2 or more runs. I even think the Pirates take this game.
  • No Hits
  • No HR
  • Yankees
  • 3 or Fewer Runs
  • 7 or Fewer Strikeouts
  • Rays (Streak Pick)- In this matchup, the 46-40 Rays will play the 34-48 White Sox. The Rays will send righty Jeremy Hellickson to the mound, where he has been dominant lately, allowing only 3 runs in his past 3 starts. His ERA is very high at 4.90, but that was mostly because of early season struggles. He will face Dylan Axelrod of the Sox, who has not been good at all lately. In his past 4 starts, he has allowed 17 earned runs over 21 innings pitched, which is almost a run an inning. Axelrod's team, meanwhile, has been horrible in their last 10, going only 3-7 with losses to the Orioles and the lowly Indians and Mets. The Rays, on the other hand, have gone 7-3 in their last 10, with wins against Toronto, Detroit and the Astros. The Rays obviously have the better pitching and offense, so I see no reason why they should lose. Expect an easy Rays win.
  • No Runs
  • 5 or More Runs
  • Athletics Leading
  • No Strikeouts
  • No Runs
  • Red Sox Leading or Tied
  • LA Dodgers
  • United States Win (Streak Pick)- I'm going to keep this brief since there isn't much to talk about, but here we go. The USA has played Guatemala 12 times, and have absolutely dominated them, with 11 wins and 1 draw. They played back in 2012 in the semifinals of World Cup Qualifying, and the United States easily came out on top, 3-1. In Guatemala's last 11 matches they have not won a game, while the United States has won 9 out of their last 12. Every stat is pointing towards the USA, and USA coach Jurgen Klinsmann has said that the starters against Guatemala will be the favorites to start in the Gold Cup, so the United States will not be taking this game lightly at all. I expect an easy 2-0 or 3-0 win.

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