Tuesday, July 2, 2013

SIU Picks July 3

As I said yesterday, a new site will soon be launched under a different name but will give you the same picks and insights as I do now. I will also carry over my record. The site will have a better look to it. But for now, to picks.

The New Site Will Be Launched Sometime Early Next Week. Probably Tuesday or Wednesday.
  • David Ferrer (Streak Pick)- This quarterfinal match pits the #4 seeded David Ferrer against the 8th seeded Juan Martin Del Potro. These two players, have met 8 times previously to this match, and Ferrer has dominated, winning 6 out of those 8 matches. In fact, Del Potro hasn't won since 2009, and Ferrer has won the last 4 meetings, including a meeting at last year's Wimbledon. So far this tournament, Ferrer has gone to 4 sets in actually all of his matches but one, and he went to 5 sets in that one. However, in the last 2 sets he has always seemed to dominate. In fact, in the final two sets of all of his matches, he has only surrendered 23 games, which if you divide by 8, is just about 3 games a set, which is barely anything. Therefore, this tells me that Ferrer has struggled early but turned his game on later in the match. Del Potro, meanwhile, has won each of his matches in straight sets, including a 4th round win over 23rd ranked Seppi. However, he has gone to a tiebreaker in each of his 3 previous matches. Although Ferrer seems to be struggling, I still think he takes this match, as he has simply dominated after he gets going. I think he will probably lose the first or second set, but should then proceed to win the match in four sets, and continue his dominance later in the match. His history against Del Potro is great, and other than the early match struggles, there is no reason that Ferrer should lose this match. He is also currently -150 to win the match, which shows that he is favored by oddsmakers, who are usually quite smart.
  • 37 or Fewer Games
  • 16 or Fewer Games
  • Murray Wins by 7+ Games
  • Portugal U20 Win
  • Chile U20
  • Paraguay U20 (Streak Pick)- This match will pit Paraguay against Iraq. To start, let's look at both teams' roads to the second stage. Iraq came out on top of their group, starting off with a draw of England and then beating Egypt and Chile. In my opinion, this was probably the easiest group to win in the entire tournament, as none of the teams are spectacular. Paraguay, meanwhile, finished second in their pretty tough group, as they had to face Greece and Mexico. They were able to draw Greece and Mali (the third team in the group), but were surprisingly able to come out on top against Mexico. So, you can't really definitely say that either team is better, because one was in a much weaker group than the other. However, the odds are greatly favoring Paraguay, as they are +115 to win in regulation time, while Iraq is only +240 to win. That means that Paraguay is favored greatly to advance. I expect this game to be close, maybe a 1 goal spread, but I think Paraguay is the better team here as they were able to hang with very tough teams during the group stage. Therefore, they should have no trouble with Iraq.
  • Yes Both Teams Score
  • Odd Number of Goals Scored
  • Yes Both Teams Score 
  • Any Other Result- Segura
  • Nationals Leading
  • No
  • Tigers Leading
  • Pirates Leading
  • 4 or More Strikeouts
  • Red Sox (Streak Pick)- This matchup wil be between the 40-44 Padres and the 51-34 Red Sox. The Padres will send Edinson Volquez to the mound, who has gone 6-6 with a 5.50 ERA so far this season. He has not done too well in his last 3 starts, as he has not lasted more than 6 innings in any of them. In those starts, he has allowed 7 earned runs (about a run every 2 innings), and has allowed at least 7 runners to reach base in each of those starts, which is a WHIP towards 1.25, which isn't exactly great. On the road this year, he has been horrendous, going 3-2 while sporting a whopping 6.23 ERA and .314 opposing hitter's batting average. The Red Sox will counter with Lester, who has not been great this year either, going 8-4 with a 4.61 ERA. Lester had made about 4 terrible starts in a row before he finally was able to go 7 innings while only allowing 4 earned runs in late June. A lot of those bad starts were on the road, where he has a 5.48 ERA. However, this game is at home, where he is undefeated with a 3-0 record and has a low ERA at 3.24. The Sox have been hot in their last 10, going 7-3, including a 4-1 win over the Padres yesterday. They have won four out of their last 5, and have scored at least 5 runs in 7 of their 10 last games. The Padres, meanwhile, are only 2-8 in their last 10, as their offense has been terrible, scoring less than 2 runs in 7 out of their past 10 games. Therefore, the Red Sox easily have the offensive advantage to go along with their pitching advantage. Should be an easy win for the Sox here. The oddsmakers are also favoring the Sox, as the money line is at -184. 
  • 5 or More Runs
  • 7 or More Strikeouts
  • No Runs
  • Yankees Leading
  • Rays
  • Botafogo Leading
  • Any Other Number
  • Real Salt Lake Win
  • Cardinals
  • Athletics (Streak Pick)- The 49-35 A's will face the 35-46 Cubs in this matchup. The A's are coming off an 8-7 win last night against the Cubs. The Cubs will put Matt Garza on the mound, who has been impressive in his last 3 starts (Keep in mind they were against weak offensive teams, the Mets, Astros and Brewers.) He has only allowed 2 runs in 22 innings pitched over those last 3 starts, which has lowered his ERA from over 6 to 3.83. The A's will counter with Bartolo Colon, who has been spectacular all season long. The 40 year old starter has gone 11-2 with a 2.79 ERA and has won 8 straight starts while not allowing more than 3 runs in any of them. Both the Cubs and the A's have gone 6-4 in their last 10, and both offenses have been about the same, although the A's probably get the slight edge because of the Cubs easy opponents in their past 10 games. I don't think this will be a pitching duel like some think. The A's offense is not like the Mets or the Brewers or the Astros, and can put up a lot of runs quickly. I expect them to knock Garza out of the game within 6 innings and easily take this game behind the strong pitching of Colon.

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