Monday, July 1, 2013

SIU Picks July 2nd

Second day of picks, had a pretty nice day with my Streak Picks yesterday, going 4-1 and 4-0 on Super Streak Picks. I hope to continue with good picks today. Not really any tennis locks, but there are some nice soccer picks later in the day. So here are the picks the SM has up right now, and I will post the rest and writeups by 11 AM Eastern Time.

I'm going to be getting rid of streak picks and just doing super streak picks. Streak picks don't really make sense to do because there is usually a good pick at every time slot of the day, except maybe the very early morning. Super streak picks will now become streak picks.

  • Na Li (Streak Pick)- This match pits the #6 seeded Na Li against the #4 seeded Agnieszka Radwanska. These two players have met 10 times previously, with Na Li taking 6 out of those 10 matches. Since 2012, they have played 6 times, and surprsingly Na LI has won 4 out of those 6, including a win in the Australian Open earlier this year. Radwanska has really struggled so far this Wimbledon after breezing through her first 2 matches. In the third round match, she faced young American Madison Keys, and was taken to a third set where she won 6-3. Then, she played Pironkova in the fourth round, and was again taken to a thirds set, where again she won 6-3. However, none of those players were ranked, and the #6 player in the world is not simply going to roll over in the third set. Na Li has done almost the opposite of Radwanska so far. She cruised throug her first round match, then struggled in her next two matches, and was taken to three sets in each. However, in her fourth round match, she simply steamrolled past 11th ranked Vinci, surrendering only 2 games in the entire match, both in the first set. Radwanska not playing as well as usual tells me that something must be wrong with her, whether it is fatigue or an injury. However, Na Li said she felt great hitting the ball in her fourth round match, and felt as though she had turned her tournament around after struggling early. I think Na Li continues her hot streak, and beats the struggling Radwanska in 3 sets. She is currently -150 to win the match, which are pretty good odds in a match between such closely ranked players.
  • 8 or Fewer Games
  • 22 or More Games
  • Sloane Stephens
  • Spain U20 Leading
  • Yes Both Teams Score
  • 3 or More Goals
  • Odd Number of Goals Scored
  • Any Other Number of Goals
  • France (Super Streak Pick)- Here we have one of the first second stage matches of the tournament. France had to play in arguably the hardest group in the entire tournament, as it contained Spain, Ghana, and the United States. Despite the challenge, they were able to compile a 1-1-1 record, beating Ghana, losing to Spain and drawing the United States. Meanwhile, Turkey, the host of the U-20 World Cup, was given one of the easier groups, with the only good team being Colombia. They quite easily beat El Salvador and Australia, but lost 1-0 to Colombia, as predicted. Turkey will also be without two of their better players, Ibrahim Yilmaz and Samuel Umtiti. Meanwhile, France will be getting back one of their better players, Paul Pogba. France has definitely yet to play to their full potential, and I think they kick it into high gear here and easily advance to the quarterfinals of the tournament. The 90 minute odds favor France greatly, as France to win is at +120 while Turkey to win is up there at +230. This tells me that oddsmakers favor France and I think France will come through 1-0 or 2-1.
  • Uruguay
  • Nigeria U20/Uruguay U20 or Tie
  • No Runs
  • Pittsburgh Pirates (Streak Pick)- Here we have our first MLB matchup of the night, where the 51-30 Pirates will meet the 39-44 Phillies in an in-state matchup. The Phillies will send Jonathan Pettibone to the bump, where he has gone 3-3 with a 4.17 ERA so far this season. In his last 7 starts, he has not lasted more than 6 innings in any of them. Of those 7 starts, he has allowed 22 earned runs, an average of just over 3 per game. However, in his last 4 starts, he has allowed 14 earned runs, an average of about 3.5 runs per game. He also has not won a start since May 14th in Cleveland, and has lost 3 since then. His mediocre stats are mostly due to his struggles while pitching on the road, as he has gone 1-2 with a 6.39 ERA away from home. Hitters are hitting way over .300 against him when he pitches on the road, as hitters have hit a whopping .328. I don't really know who will pitch for the Phillies, as Locke threw a bullpen session last night in case he had to go into pitch in the Pirates extra-inning win, and therefore he will not be pitching tonight. If I see a probable starter, I might upgrade this back to a super streak pick, but for now it will be a streak pick. So, now that pitching is taken care of, let's look at offense. The Pirates are 9-1 in their last 10 games, and have won 9 straight. During that 9 game stretch, their offense has averaged just under 6 runs per game at 5.89 per game. Therefore, we see that their offense has been stellar lately.  The Phillies, meanwhile, have not been anywhere as successful as the Pirates. They are 4-6 in their last 10 games, and have lost 2 straight. Their offense has been pretty good though, averaging 5.1 runs per game over that 10 games stretch. However, that number was inflated by a 16 run outburst against the Dodgers. Therefore, the Pirates easily have the offensive edge, and look to win their 10th straight. However, not knowing who will pitch for them worries me. I still think they win this game, but it is not a sure thing like it might have been with Locke.
  • Any Other Result- Buster Posey
  • Giants Leading or Tied
  • No Homeruns
  • Rangers Leading
  • No Hits
  • Yankees
  • 7 or More Strikeouts
  • No Either Team Has The Lead
  • 7 or Fewer Runs
  • Oakland Athletics (Super Streak Pick)- Here we have a matchup between the 35-45 Cubs and the 48-35 Athletics. The Cubs will throw Scott Feldman, who has struggled in recent games. Against Milwaukee he was only able to go 6 inning while allowing 3 earned runs (although he did get the win). In the game before, he only went 5.1 innings and allowed 5 earned runs while letting 10 runners reach base. On the season, he is 7-6 with a 3.46 ERA, which is actually pretty decent. However, in his last 5 starts, he has allowed 16 earned runs in about 30 innings pitched, which is about a 4.75 ERA. He has also struggled on the road, going 3-4 with a 4.15 ERA, and Oakland will not pose an easy test to try and turn his road performances around. Oakland will send AJ Griffin to the mound, who has gone 6-6 with a 3.56 ERA so far this year. In his last start, he was spectacular, going 9 innings and only allowing 4 runners to reach base while giving up no runs. In his past 5 starts, he has pitched 34.2 innings and only allowed 10 earned runs, which is an ERA of 2.65. Therefore, he has been red hot of late. At home, he has been solid so far this year, going 3-2 with a 3.06 ERA. Oakland has not been great lately, going 5-5 in their previous ten, although they have won 4 out of their previous 5 and are coming off a 7-5 win over the Cardinals. Chicago has gone 6-4 in their past 10, while winning their past 2 games over the Mariners. They have also won 4 out of their last 5. However, the Cubs faced weak opponents in the Mariners and Brewers, while Oakland faced two very good teams in the Reds and the Cardinals. In my opinion, the Athletics have the edge in pitching and offense, and should easily take this game.

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