Thursday, August 23, 2012

SFTC 8/24/12
Brandt Snedeker or Tie @ Rickie Fowler
Rickie enters this 9 hole golf prop ranked 18th in the Fedex Cup. He has played absolutely horrible of late, and in fact has been over par in his last 5 events. In the first round, he played very well, shooting a -4 total score and a -3 score on the back nine. Meanwhile, Snedeker enters ranked 19th in the Fedex Cup, and has played fairly well of late, finishing under par in 3 of his last 5 events. He played okay golf in the first round, shooting a -1 but a +2 on the back nine.

My Pick: Brandt Snedeker or Tie
Why: Most people say that all the signs point to Rickie Fowler as the pick here. However, I feel very differently. It is surprising to me that Fowler did so well at such a tough course after playing so bad in his last 5 events. I doubt he will be able to repeat yesterday's performance and this will end in a tie, which is why I am taking Snedeker.

Rory McIlroy Or Tie @ Tiger Woods
Here we have the second golf prop of the day. Yesterday I overviewed these two golfers seasons, so scroll down if you need a refresher. Yesterday, McIlroy shot a -2 after winning the 9 hole prop on the back 9 yesterday. Meanwhile, Tiger finished strong and shot a -3.

My Pick: Rory McIlroy or Tie
Why: There isn't much to say here except that I envision both players to tie at a score around 1 under or so.

Werder Bremen Win, Draw, Lose by 1 @ Borussia Dortmund 2+
This will be the first match in the German Bundesliga for both these teams. However, I will supply you with some stats from last year. In the Bundesliga last year, Dortmund finished in first place, while Werder Bremen finished in 9th. Dortmund had a +55 goal differential and finished the season with 81 points. Meanwhile, Bremen had a -9 goal differential and only 42 points. In Dortmund's last 12 matches at home, they have won 11 times and drawn once. Out of these 11 wins, 6 have been by 2 or more goals. Last season, Dortmund met Bremen at home and beat them by only 1 goal. Dortmund averaged 1.8 goals per match while only allowing .9 goals per match in the Bundesliga last season. Meanwhile, Bremen has lost 8 times in their last 12 matches on the road, while winning once and drawing 3 times. Of the 8 losses, 6 were by 2 or more goals. They allowed 1.5 goals per match on the road last year.

My Pick: Borussia Dortmund Wins by 2+
Why: They are at home and I think they will come out firing against a team they should easily beat. Currently, the odds have Dortmund 2+ at +300, and Dortmund winning by 1 is also at +300. These are the best winning margin odds.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs John Isner
Here we have a tennis prop. Tsonga is ranked 6th in the singles world rankings while Isner is ranked 10th. This match will be played on a hard court, on which Isner has gone 18-8 on this year while Tsonga has gone 18-6. Both these players have very good serves, as Isner has won 77% of his first serve points this year while Tsonga has won 75%. Tsonga has gone 37-15 this season, and is coming off a tough loss in his previous tournament to unranked Jeremy Chardy. Meanwhile, Isner has gone 36-15 this year, and is coming off a semifinal loss in the same tournament Tsonga lost in the second round in. Isner beat 13th ranked Melzer to get here, while Tsonga hasn't played a ranked opponent all tournament. Isner has dropped 1 set this tournament while Tsonga hasn't dropped any. Isner leads the lifetime head to head 2-1, and in their last meeting Isner beat Tsonga in 4 sets on a clay court this year, while Tsonga won in 3 the last time they met on a hard court in 2011.

My Pick: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitching Matchup:
Carlos Villanueva: 6-3, 3.10 ERA. Post All Star: 3-3, 3.16 ERA. Away: 2-2, 3.58 ERA.
Zach Britton: 2-1, 6.23 ERA. 2-1, 6.23 ERA. Home: 0-0, 8.44 ERA. Last 2 Starts: 12 IP, 4 ER.

Odds: Line is Even

My Pick: Baltimore Orioles

Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers
Zach Greinke: 10-5, 4.01 ERA. Post All Star: 1-2, 5.73 ERA. Away: 5-3, 4.59 ERA.
Rick Porcello: 9-8, 4.67 ERA. Post All Star: 3-3, 5.11 ERA. Home: 4-4, 4.62 ERA.

Odds:
Tigers: -113
Angels: +103

My Pick: Los Angeles Angels LOCK OF THE DAY

Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pitching Matchup:
Edwin Jackson: 7-8, 3.69 ERA. Post All Star: 2-4, 3.59 ERA. Away: 4-3, 3.94 ERA.
Kyle Kendrick: 6-9, 4.20 ERA. Post All Star: 4-1, 2.37 ERA. Home: 2-6, 5.01 ERA.

Odds:
Nationals: -118
Phillies: +108

My Pick: Washington Nationals


Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Wandy Rodriguez: 8-12, 4.00 ERA. Post All Star: 1-6, 5.70 ERA. Home: 4-7, 3.89 ERA.
Mike Fiers: 6-6, 2.90 ERA. Post All Star: 3-3, 3.57 ERA (12 ER in last 2 starts). Away: 2-2, 3.38 ERA.

Last 3 Games:
Pirates: Swept by Padres, averaged 2.67 runs per game
Brewers: Swept Cubs, averaged 5.67 runs per game

Odds:
Pirates: -108
Brewers: -102

My Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates

Rest of My Picks
Philadelphia Union W/D
New York Giants
San Francisco Giants



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