Tuesday, August 21, 2012

SFTC 8/21/12
Fenerbahce Win/Draw @ Spartak Moscow Win
Here we have a Champions league qualifying game to start off the day. Spartak Moscow comes into this game 4-0-1 in the Russian Premier league and 2-0-0 at home. Currently, their goal differential is +2. Meanwhile, Fenerbahce has only played one game in the Turkish Super League, which they drew. The odds favor Spartak to win, as they are -138 while Fenerbahce win or draw is +100.

My Pick: Spartak Moscow Win
Why: I think Spartak gets a goal in the middle of the second half which will propel them to the win. If this game was at Fenerbahce, I have a feeling I would pick them, but since it is at Spartak I like them to win.

Dynamo Kiev Win or Draw @ Borussia Mochengladbach Win
We have another Champions League qualifier for our afternoon pick. Dynamo enters this game 5-0-1 in their league (Ukranian Premier League) and has a goal differential of +7. Meanwhile, Broussia's league (German Bundesliga) has not started yet. Borussia to win is currently +130 while Kiev or draw is -175.

My Pick: Dynamo Kiev Win or Draw

Tulsa Shock Wins or Loses By 14 or Less @ Connecticut Sun 15+
Tulsa enters with a 3-17 record and an 0-8 record on the road. In fact. they have lost their last 3 games on the road by 15 or less. They average only 77 points per game while allowing 84.3 points per game. In their last 10 games, they are 2-8 and are on a 4 game losing streak. Meanwhile, the Sun are 16-5 and average 82.2 points per game while only allowing 77.7 points per game. The are 7-3 in their last 10 and are on a 1 game winning streak. At home this year, they are 8-3. In their last 3 home games, they are 2-1 and in their last two games won by an average of 12 points against teams much better than the Shock. The odds favor the Sun by 14 points. The first time these two teams met, the Sun came out on top by 11 points in Tulsa.

My Pick: Connecticut Sun 15+
Why: They beat the Sun by 11 points on the road and I see no reason why they shouldn't beat up on the Sun by more at home. They recently beat the Liberty at home by 11, a team that has 4 more wins than the Shock and has been good against the Sun in the past. The Sun appear to have gotten better as the season has gone on while the Sun have just stayed as bad as ever.

Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pitching Matchup
Homer Bailey: 10-8, 4.16 ERA. Post All Star: 3-2, 4.22 ERA. Away: 7-2, 2.92 ERA.
Cliff Lee: 2-7, 3.83 ERA. Post All Star: 1-2, 3.55 ERA. Home: 0-5, 4.59 ERA.

Last 5 Games:
Phillies: 3-2, 6 Runs Per Game
Reds: 3-2, 5.8 Runs Per Game

Phillies: -155
Reds: +140

My Pick: Philadelphia Phillies

Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox
Pitching Matchup
Ervin Santana: 6-10, 5.59 ERA. Post All Star: 2-1, 5.06 ERA. Away: 3-4, 6.47 ERA.
Aaron Cook: 3-6, 4.58 ERA. Post All Star: 1-4, 4.72 ERA. Home: 2-3, 4.96 ERA.

Last 5 Games:
Red Sox: 2-3, 3.6 Runs Per Game
Angels: 1-4, 4.4 Runs Per Game.

Angels: -110
Red Sox: +100

My Pick: Los Angeles Angels

New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox
Pitching Matchup
Ivan Nova: 11-6, 4.76 ERA. Post All Star: 1-3, 7.02 ERA. Away Stats: 8-2, 3.76 ERA.
Francisco Liriano: 4-10, 5.22 ERA. Post All Star: 1-3,  5.54 ERA. Home Stats: 2-4, 4.97 ERA.

Last 5 Games:
Yankees: 2-3, 4.6 Runs Per Game.
White Sox: 2-3, 4.8 Runs Per Game.

Yankees: -105
White Sox: -105

My Pick: New York Yankees

Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres
Pitching Matchup:
AJ Burnett: 15-4, 3.54 ERA. Post All Star: 5-3, 3.29 ERA. Away Stats: 7-3, 4.43 ERA.
Jason Marquis: 6-7, 4.08 ERA. Post All Star: 5-2, 4.43 ERA. Home Stats: 3-6, 5.15 ERA.

Last 5 Games:
Pirates: 3-2, 4.6 Runs Per Game.
Padres: 2-3, 3.6 Runs Per Game.

Pirates: -130
Padres: +120

My Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates LOCK OF THE DAY

Minnesota Lynx DD Win @ Seattle Storm SDL or Win
Here we have our second WNBA game of the day. Minnesota enters 17-4, and 6-3 on the road. They score 87 points per game while allowing only 74.3. They are 7-3 in their last 10 and are on a 4 game winning streak. Their last game on the road against the worst team in the league, Tulsa, Minnesota won by double digits. Meanwhile, Seattle enters 10-11 and 6-3 at home. They average 70.4 points per game while allowing only 71.9 points per game. They are 6-4 in their last 10 but lost their last game at home by 11 points to a team with almost the same record as Minnesota. In each of their home losses, they have lost by an average of 9.3 points, losing by 11 twice and 6 once. The odds favor Minnesota by 10. These teams have met 3 times. Minnesota has won by double digits in the two games they were home, but actually lost to Seattle when Seattle was at home. Keep in mind Seattle has some injuries, and even if the injured players do play, they won't play the way they normally do.

My Pick: Minnesota Lynx DD Win

San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Pitching Matchup:
Tim Lincecum: 6-12, 5.45 ERA. Post All Star: 3-3, 3.30 ERA. Away Stats: 3-6, 7.50 ERA.
Joe Blanton: 8-11, 4.96 ERA. Post All Star: 1-3, 4.96 ERA. Home Stats: 4-3, 4.46.

Last 5 Games:
Dodgers: 2-3, 4.2 Runs Per Game
Giants: 3-2, 5 Runs Per Game

Dodgers: -116
Giants: +106

My Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers

SIU Picks Of The Day: Pittsburgh Pirates and No Homeruns

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