Wednesday, August 15, 2012

SFTC 8/16/12

Carl Pettersson or Tie vs Webb Simpson
Carl Pettersson enters ranked 9th in the Fedex Cup while Webb Simpson enters ranked 13th. In Simpson's last event, the PGA Championship, he missed the cut, while Pettersson finished tied for third at -4. One thing to note is that Webb Simpson won this tournament last year, and is looking to repeat.

My Pick: Carl Pettersson or Tie
Why: He is the hotter golfer of late and I see no reason not to pick him. Actually, I envision both players shooting the same score, which will give Pettersson the win, as he has the tie option.

Nick Watney or Tie vs  Sergio Garcia
Watney enters the tournament ranked 51st in the Fedex Cup Standings, while Garcia enters ranked 102nd. Both players had terrible tournaments last week, as they both missed the cut at the PGA's final major of the season.

My Pick: Nick Watney or Tie
Why: Both golfers seem to be similar and Watney actually looks a lot better. I expect him to either win this prop by 1 stroke or tie.

Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees
Pitching Matchup
Ivan Nova: 11-6, 4.70 ERA. Last Start: 7.1 IP, 2 ER. Home Stats: 3-4, 6.16 ERA.
Derek Holland: 7-6, 4.92 ERA. Last Start: 7.2 IP, 1 ER. Away Stats: 4-2, 4.06 ERA.
Key Offensive Stats
Yankees average over 5 runs per game in their last 5 games
Rangers average about 3 runs per game in their last 5 games

My Pick: New York Yankees
Why: I think the pitching matchup is about even here. However, I have to give the offensive advantage to the Yankees, who have been red hot of late against the cooling off Rangers offense.

8 or Less vs 9 or More (Serena Williams vs Urszula Radswanka)
Radswanka enters ranked 46th in the world in singles, while Serena enters ranked 2nd. Overall, Serena leads the all time series 3-0. In their last meeting in the Olympics, Serena easily won the first set 6-2, and won the second 6-3, probably conserving her energy. In 2010 at the Australian Open, Serena steamrolled through her 6-2, 6-1. However, in 2008 at Wimbledon, Radswanka played her tough but Serena came out on top 6-4, 6-4.

My Pick: 8 Games Or Less
Why: Serena seems to be playing amazing tennis of late and I believe she will quickly finish the first set. Serena starts very quickly and should break Radswanka before she gets the flow of the match.

6 Games Or Less vs 7 Games Or More
Here we have a prop asking how many games Federer will lose in the match. He will play the #49th seeded Bernard Tomic, and in case you didn't know, Federer is the #1 ranked player in the world. In the head to head series, Federer leads 2-0. In 2012 at the Australian Open, Federer beat Tomic in 3 sets, the first 2 sets being 6-4, 6-2, which equals 6 games lost. In 2011 in the Davis Cup, Tomic played Federer tough, taking him to 4 sets the first two being 6-2, 7-5 (Federer won those two), which equals 7 games lost.

My Pick: 7 Games Or More
Why: I think the first set will be 6-3, and that Federer will let his guard down a little but still win the next set 6-4, and win the match, but give green to the 7 or more pickers.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitching Matchup
Joe Blanton: 8-10, 4.61 ERA. Last Start: 5 IP, 4 ER. Away Stats: 4-7, 4.77 ERA
AJ Burnett: 14-4, 3.32 ERA. Last Start: 5.2 IP, 4 ER. Home Stats: 7-1, 2.33 ERA.
Key Offensive Stats
Dodgers average over 6 runs per game in their past 5 games
Pirates average about 4 runs per game in their past 5 games

My Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates
Why: I can't see the Dodgers completing a sweep against the Pirates on the road against such a good pitcher in AJ Burnett. I believe AJ will hold the Dodgers to about 3 runs while the Pirates score 4 or so.

Connecticut Sun DD Win vs New York Liberty SDLW
The Sun enter this game at 15-4, and 8-1 on the road. The Liberty have an almost opposite record at 6-12 and are 3-6 at home. These teams have met 3 times this season, the Sun coming out on top all 3 times. The first meeting in New York, the Sun won by a margin of 5. However, the two meetings, were blowouts, the Sun winning by 15 and 42. Both teams have not played since July 13th, as the WNBA has a break for the Olympic Games. The last time the Sun played a team of the caliber of the Liberty (Washington Mystics who have a 4-14 record) on the road, they beat them by a 7 point margin.

My Pick: Connecticut Sun DD Win
Why: They have played well on the road so far this season and should beat the struggling Liberty.

Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Red Sox
Pitching Matchup
Clay Buchholz: 10-3, 4.24 ERA. Last Start: 9 IP 1 ER. Away Stats: 4-2, 4.42 ERA.
Chris Tillman: 5-2, 3.40 ERA: Last Start: 5.2 IP, 6 ER. Home Stats: 2-1, 4.26 ERA.

My Pick: Boston Red Sox
Why: They have a better pitcher who is hotter than the other one. Also, even though they have not shown it recently, I believe they have a better offense and should easily win this game against a mediocre pitcher.

Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
Pitching Matchup
Francisco Liriano: 3-10, 5.35 ERA. Last Start: 3.1 IP, 6 ER. Away Stats: 1-6, 5.89 ERA.
Aaron Laffey: 3-3, 4.72 ERA. Last Start: 5.2 IP, 5 ER. Home Stats: 1-1, 5.74 ERA.

My Pick: Chicago White Sox
Why: The pitching matchup looks about even, so I believe this will be a pretty high scoring game. However, the White Sox offense and home run leader Adam Dunn should come out on top.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons: 0-1 in the preseason. Lost to Ravens 31-17 in a high scoring affair.
Cincinnati Bengals: 1-0 in the preseason. Beat Jets 17-6.

It is very obvious to everyone that the Jets offense has some issues and that the Ravens defense is one of the best in the NFL. It impresses me that the Falcons were able to score 17 points against the Ravens defense in a preseason game. However, I find it hard to believe that only 17 points is going to win this game. I think the Falcons offense will step up and score 24 points and beat the Bengals who will have defensive issues against a much better playoff team caliber offense.

My Pick: Atlanta Falcons

Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers
Pitching Matchup:
Cliff Lee: 2-7, 3.85 ERA. Last Start 7 IP, 4 ER. Away Stats: 2-2, 3.21 ERA.
Manny Estrada: 0-5, 4.36 ERA. Last Start: 4 IP, 4 ER. Home Stats: 0-2, 4.11 ERA.

Phillies: Favorite at -118
Brewers: Underdog at +108

My Pick: Philadelphia Phillies LOCK OF THE DAY

Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitching Matchup:
David Price: 15-4, 2.50 ERA. Last Start: 7 IP, 2 ER. Away Stats: 8-2, 3.20 ERA.
Dan Haren: 8-9, 4.68 ERA. Last Start: 3.1 IP, 5 ER (against Seattle at home, a team that tends to struggle offensively). Home Stats: 4-6, 4.56 ERA.

Rays: Favorite at -114
Angels: Underdog at +104

My Pick: Tampa Bay Rays

Streak It Up Parlay Of The Day: Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Phillies

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