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SFTC 8/20/12: Just a quick note, I will not be picking in game props as they are mostly toss ups. If you would like help on a prop, simply visit the chat box and I will do my best to help you! Eventually, as I begin to grow as a blogger and get more followers, I will expand to these props.
Mariehamn Win or Draw @ Myllykosken Pallo Win
To start off on Monday, we have a Finnish League game. Mariehamn enters in 3rd place in the league with 37 points and a goal differential of +9. They are 2-2-1 in their last 5 games. Mariehamn scores 1.1 goals per match on the road and allows 1.5 goals on the road. They have a record of 4-2-4 on the road, which means they win or draw 60% of the time. Meanwhile, Myllykosken Pallo enters ranked 6th place in the league with 32 points and a +7 goal differential. They score 1.5 goals per match at home and allow 1 goal per match. At home, they are 6-2-1. In their last 5 games, they are 2-1-2, a winning percentage of 40%. These two teams actually met in Mariehamn's stadium earlier in the season, and ended in a 0-0 draw. The odds say that Myllykosken Pallo is favored at +125 while the draw is at +225 and Mariehamn is also +225.
My Pick: Myllykosken Pallo Win
Why: They have been unbelievable at home this season and beat teams very high up in the standings. I see no reason why they can't beat a team at home only 5 points ahead of them and a team that they were able to draw on the road earlier in the year.
Manchester United Win @ Everton Win or Draw
Here we have an English Premier league mathchup featuring two teams playing their first game of the season. In 2011, Manchester United finished tied for 1st in the Premier League but lost to Man City in goal differential and finished in 2nd (Man Utd's goal differential was +56). On the road last year, Manchester United scored 1.7 goals per match and allowed only .9 goals per match. They went 5-0-2 on the road last year, losing to Man City, and Wigan. Meanwhile, Everton finished in 7th place with 56 points and a +10 goal differential. Everton was amazing at home last year, finishing 7-1-1, the loss coming to Arsenal, a team about the caliber of Manchester United, and in fact are a bit worse. However, Everton did have a notable win against Manchester City at home, 1-0. They scored 1.5 goals per game at home and allowed 1 goal per game. We must take into account that Man U just made a huge acquisition in Arsenal's striker Robert Van Persie, one of the top goal scorers and best players in the Premier League last year. Currently, Manchester United Win is -120 while Everton Win or Draw is also -120. Therefore, the line is about even.
My Pick: Manchester United Win
Why: I think they will just explode in their first game with their new striker and most of their starting roster back from last year. I envision a 2-1 or even 3-1 score in favor of Manchester United.
Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals
Tim Hudson: 12-4, 3.59 ERA. Post All Star: 5-0, 3.64 ERA. Away Stats: 5-1, 3.06 ERA.
Jordan Zimmerman: 9-7, 2.38 ERA. Post All Star: 4-1, 1.77 ERA. Home Stats: 2-3, 2.90 ERA.
Last 5 Games:
Braves: 3-2, average of 3.6 runs per game.
Nationals: 3-2, average of 3.4 runs per game.
Atlanta Braves: +124
Washington Nationsals: -134
My Pick: Washington Nationals
Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies
Mike Leake: 5-7, 4.29 ERA. Post All Star: 2-1, 4.93 ERA. Away Stats: 3-3, 3.13 ERA.
Roy Halladay: 6-7, 3.80 ERA. Post All Star: 2-2, 3.46 ERA. Home Stats: 3-3, 3.27 ERA.
Last 5 Games:
Reds: 3-2, average of 5.6 runs per game.
Phillies: 2-3, average of 4 runs per game
My Pick: Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Eagles @ New England Patriots
Here we have an NFL preseason game. I recommend staying away from this game, but heres what I think. In their first preseason game, the Patriots beat the Saints in a low scoring game, 7-6. Meanwhile, the Eagles beat the Steelers 24-23. Obviously, the Eagles had the more impressive score, but I believe the Saints are a much better team than than the Steelers because of their wide receiver depth and their better #2 and #3 quarterbacks. This is the preseason game where the starters play the most, as they usually play the entire first half. I give the Patriots the edge at quarterback and wide receiver, and defense, but I have to give the Eagles the nod in the running game. However, the Patriots are at home and this will give them the advantage they need over the Eagles.
My Pick: New England Patriots
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Madison Bumgarner: 13-7, 2.97 ERA. Post All Star: 3-2, 2.25 ERA. Away Record: 5-6, 4.06 ERA.
Clayton Kershaw: 11-6, 2.90 ERA. Post All Star: 5-1, 2.88 ERA. Home Record: 6-3, 2.27 ERA.
Last 5 Games
Dodgers: 3-2, 5.8 Runs Per Game.
Giants: 3-2, 5.8 Runs Per Game.
My Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers LOCK OF THE DAY
SIU Parlay Of The Day: Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers