Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Welcome to my blog. As you may know, I quit blogging around 3 months ago. However, I am now back and ready to do some writeups and make some picks! I am writing on a laptop that is not so great, as I won't have access to a "good" computer until Monday morning. Therefore, I am experiencing difficulties with  ads that are supposed to appear on my blog. Just hang with me and that will be fixed. Each day I will try to give you 3 long writeups, and some short writeups with small reasons why I expect a team to win. Also, I will feature a Streak It Up Parlay of the Day. This will feature two or three teams I feel are very good picks. Each pick will have a short writeup accompanying it. I will try to pick 2-3 props during the day and do 2-3 at night. Be sure to follow me on Twitter and bookmark this blog. Keep coming back for more writeups and picks! See below for picks! I tend not to pick mini props, but I can give insight on them, so simply go to the chatbox and I will try to help you.

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SFTC 8/15/12

Ivory Coast Win/Draw vs Russia Win

Don’t know too much about these teams, but heres some odds:

  • Russia Win: 1/1
  • Draw: 11/5 (roughly 2/1)
  • Ivory Coast Win: 3/1
Looking at the odds, it appears as though Russia is the favorite to win, but the draw is very strong. Because it’s a friendly, I doubt both teams will be playing their hardest as it doesn’t matter too much. Russia is ranked higher in the world than Ivory Coast, coming in at #11 while Ivory Coast enters at #16. In Russia’s past three matches, they have went 1-1-1, beating Czech Republic, drawing Poland and are coming off a loss to Greece. Ivory Coast has went 1-1-1 in their last matches also, losing to Zambia in PKs, beating Tanzania and are coming off a draw against Morroco.

The Pick: Ivory Coast Win/Draw

Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins

Roy Halladay: 6-6, 3.80 ERA. Last start vs Cardinals: 8 IP, 1 ER, Win. Earlier in the year, went 7 Innings at home and allowed 1 run against Miami, getting the win. Away he is 3-3 with a 4.38 ERA.

Mark Buehrle: 9-11, 3.80 ERA. Last start @Boston: 6 IP, 4 ER, Loss. At home vs Phillies earlier in season he went 7 Innings, and gave up 2 runs. At home he is 6-4 with a 2.95 ERA.

My Pick: Philadelphia Phillies

Why: Although it looks like Buehrle has the edge, Halladay is pitching better and better lately and the Phillie offense is starting to play a little better than they were earlier in the season, even though they made some big offenseive player trades (sending them to other teams.)

Germany Win @ Argentina Win or Draw
Today we have an international friendly. To start off, I'll give you some odds.

  • Argentina Win/Draw: 4/7
  • Germany Win: 13/10
So Argentina Win/Draw comes in as the favorite. Currently, Germany is ranked second in the world ranking while Argentina is ranked 7th.

My Pick: Argentina Win or Draw

Why: Argentina is at home and that will give them even more of an edge over Germany. Also, I doubt both teams will be playing their hardest as this game doesn't mean anything. I see a 1-1 or a 2-2 draw as the final score.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners
Jeremy Hellickson: 7-7, 3.52 ERA. Last 2 Starts, 9 IP, 7 ER, 1-1 record. Faced Mariners earlier this year, went 7 innings and gave up 1 run. Away, he is 4-1 with a 3.42 ERA.
Felix Hernandez: 10-5, 2.74 ERA. Last 2 starts: 16 innings, 4 ER, 1-0 record. Faced Rays earlier this year, went 8 innings and gave up 1 run. At home, he is 5-3 with a 2.26 ERA.

My Pick: Seattle Mariners

Why: The Mariners no doubt have the better starting pitcher in this one. They are coming off a 3-2 win last night which will hopefully help them to have confidence in their offense, even though they only scored 3 runs. 

Washington Nationals @ San Francisco Giants

Stephen Strasburg: 13-5, 2.90 ERA. Last 2 starts: 12 IP, 1 ER, 4H. Away, he is 8-2 with a 2.41 ERA.

Tim Lincecum: Big name who has done little this year. 6-12, 5.35  ERA. Last 2 starts: 12 IP, 4 ER (3 in his last start in 7 innings.) Faced Washington earlier this year. 3.1 IP, 8 ER, loss. At home, he is 3-6 with a 3.66 ERA

My Pick: Washington Nationals

Why: Strasburg has been lights out lately and the Nationals offense has been incredible, blowing out San Francisco 14-2 two nights ago.

Spain @ Puerto Rico: Spain 3+ @ Any Other Result
Here we have another international friendly. Spain enters the game at #1 in the world, while Puerto Rico enters a 138th in the world. Here are some odds
  • Spain 3-0: 5/1
  • Spain 4-1: 14/1
  • Spain 2-0: 6/1
So the odds here make it look like Spain should easily win by 3+ goals. I am a little worried that Spain will ease up once it becomes 2-0, but I believe they will be able to penetrate Puerto Rico's defense fairly easily and score 3 or 4 goals.

My Pick: Spain 3+
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Clayton Kershaw: 10-6, 2.88 ERA. Last two starts: 13.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 wins. Earlier this year, he faced Pittsburgh and went 7 IP and gave up 1 earned run, but did not factor in the decision. On the road, he is 4-3 with a 3.64 ERA.

Wandy Rodriguez: 7-11, 3.91 ERA. Last two starts: 13 IP, 7 ER. Faced the Dodgers earlier this year and got the win by going 7 innings and allowing no runs. At home, he is 4-6 with a 3.61 ERA. Keep in mind most of these stats were recorded when Rodriguez was with the offenseless Astros.

My Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers LOCK OF THE DAY

Why: The Dodgers ace Kershaw will just be too much for the Pirates, even though their offense is pretty good. The Dodgers most recent trades have helped their offense (Hanley Ramirez and Shane Victorino) and I expect them to get the win.

Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitching Matchup:
Red Sox: Aaron Cook: 3-5, 4.70 ERA. Away Stats: 1-2, 4.26 ERA.
Orioles: Miguel Gonzalez: 4-2, 3.42 ERA. Home Stats: 1-2, 5.23 ERA.

Odds: Baltimore is the favorite at -123
 My Pick: Baltimore Orioles

Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
Pitching Matchup
Gavin Floyd: 8-9, 4.43 ERA. Road Stats: 1-6, 4.35 ERA
Ricky Romero: 8-9, 5.32 ERA. Home Stats: 5-4, 5.21 ERA.

Odds: Toronto is the favorite at -105

My Pick: Chicago White Sox

Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees
Pitching Matchup
Scott Feldman: 6-7, 4.64 ERA. Away Stats: 2-3, 6.50 ERA
Freddy Garcia: 6-5, 4.85 ERA. Home Stats: 3-3, 5.88 ERA

Odds: The Yankees are favored at -125

My Pick: New York Yankees

New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitching Matchup
R.A. Dickey: 15-3, 2.72 ERA. Road Stats: 8-2, 2.72 ERA
Mike Leake: 4-7, 4.51 ERA. Home Stats: 1-4, 6.03 ERA.
Key Offensive Stats
Mets average 3 runs per game in their last 5 games and 4.36 runs per game on the season.
Reds average 4.6 runs per game in their last 5 games and 4.29 runs per game on the season.

My Pick: Cincinnati Reds
Why: The Mets offense has struggled lately and I believe the red hot Reds offense should be able to tag Dickey for around 3 or 4 runs while Leake holds the Mets to about 3.

Dallas FC Win/Draw @ Vancouver Whitecaps Win
I am not too much of an MLS fan but I'll do what I can. So Dallas FC enters at 6-8-11, good for 26 points. Vancouver enters the game at 10-7-7, good for 37 points and tied for third place in the Western Conference. In their last 5 games, they are 2-1-2, a winning or tie percentage of 60%. Vancouver is also 2-1-2 in their past 5 matches, however they lost or tied to teams even or better then them in the standings, and also beat some pretty good teams too. This will be Vancouver's first game against a team a lot worse than them in a while, and if they can play good teams tough, I believe they can easily beat an inferior team. These two teams met earlier in the season in Vancouver (where the game is tonight) and Vancouver came out on top 1-0.

My Pick: Vancouver Whitecaps Win
Why: They are obviously the better team and have been playing good teams tough. I believe a 2-0 or 2-1 win for Vancouver will be the final.

Streak It Up Day Parlay Of The Day: Phillies(See above), No Run in the first inning (always go with no run) and Brazil Win (much better team than Sweden)

Streak It Up Night Parlay Of The Day: St. Louis Cardinals and Vancouver Whitecaps Win

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